Tungsten Fluff

On Palin

I have to take a few minutes and go political.  This is part of an email exchange I had yesterday with a conservative Christian buddy of mine out in Texas.

I had the weekend to read and think a bit about Sarah Palin and I have to admit I'm becoming excited again.  Last week I was in the Bob Barr camp firmly; mainly out of dissatisfaction with the Republicans in general and McCain specifically.  I read one comment over at NRO's The Corner over the weekend that made a good point: So what if McCain picked Palin with the sole purpose of getting votes and winning the race?  If he really thinks an Obama presidency would be a disaster for the country, then his #1 priority is to prevent that from happening by winning the campaign. He can deal with the fallout starting on Jan 20, 2009.
 
Had he picked another old white guy like Lieberman or Romney I would have definitely pulled the lever for the Libertarians.  You know I was disappointed that Ron Paul was shut out of the primaries and I think the current batch of (R) hopefuls are dull and stale.  Since Bobby Jindal and Gary Johnson are not available yet, Sarah Palin has started to draw me back into the fold.  She's a real person - not a member of the political class.  She took on the incumbent Republican governor in Alaska and kicked him out.  She doesn't allow lobbyists in her office.  She's a reformer.  She knows about energy policy and environmental impacts first-hand.  From a family stand-point, she has a son going to Eye-rak (as she calls it), Trig has Downs and now we know her daughter is pregnant.  This woman and her husband walk the talk.  I feel like my family could be in a church cell group with her family and have real connections with them.  How bizarre is that?  I can't wait for the debates where her response to drilling will be something like, "Senator Biden, have you ever actually been to ANWAR?  Have you seen the low-environmental-impact drilling technologies available now?"
 
So I'm psyched.  For all the complaining that the talking-class wing of the Republican party is doing over this woman, I think she is the best thing that has happened in a while and they need to put a sock in it.

Part of his response to contained a phrase I think summarizes how I feel:

The very person [McCain] that we all feared would wash away 30 hard fought years of conservative ground work has turned out to be the one who is not only pouring the concrete but is rocketing the next generation of conservative leaders into prominence.

We'll see how well she does tonight.  She was on the podium at 0615 this morning getting oriented - while I ate breakfast.

For fun, check out the Sarah Palin Little Known Facts page.

Palin/Jindal 2012 anyone?

(Photo Chicago Tribune)

Hillary in Tuzla

I couldn't resist...

Politics, etc...

A few thoughts & links about political events over the last couple of days:

MIchael Rozeff brings a reality check to the Fed's injection of $200B into the mortgage market.  This I don't understand: people buy into houses they can't afford (either through low APRs or balloon payments or some other financing trick), the mortgage broker gets a commission, the bank gets bought out of the mortgage and investors get bailed out on their bad investment  by the Fed.  The only losers in this are 1) the people who get foreclosed on and 2) you and me who get to pay the taxes & higher interest rates.  The mortgage brokers, banks and investment houses got their cut...what's up with that?

I received Atlas Shrugged as a Christmas gift and loved it.  Segue: John Galt's solution to the mortgage crisis.

Libertarian thought experiment derived from Elliot Spitzer's problems.  Cynical answer to the question: the first situation is illegal because the payments to the individuals are not taxed.  The government gets a cut from the sale of the video so it's OK.

Sue Payton kicks butt against the media hounds on capital hill the other day.    She's the Air Force civilian responsible for the acquisition of the new KC-45 tanker.  You saw the indignation of congressmen from Washington and Kansas and Lou Dobbs blew a gasket as well.  Turns out, she followed the laws Congress passed which actually made European companies equal to American ones in competitions like this one.

I love Back at the Chicken Shack by Jimmy Smith.  Here's an interpretation...enjoy.

Republican Party Mess

It’s primary day for Florida Republicans.  Due to a conflict between the state and national parties, Democrats can vote but their votes don’t count.  Not that it matters much anyway; the choices between Obama, Clinton and Edwards are only cosmetic.  They all offer a common version of “Hope” defined as taking money from one person and giving it to another.  Boring.  From one perspective though, it is easier to be a Democrat this election cycle.  You only have to choose who is going to be the standard bearer for party principles and ideas.  On the Republican side, we’re a step removed from that discussion.  We don’t even know what ideas we should sanction and what principles we should stand on let alone who best represents us.

Looking across the red-state scene on the internet, the news and in group and individual discussions with others, I see clear-cut deep divisions that are not going to heal by the convention this summer or the election in November.

A solid third of the party seems to support the traditional conservative wing backs Mitt Romney and/or Rudy Guiliani.  Turn on AM radio and you’ll hear Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity voice support for what they believe is true “Reagan” Republicanism.  On line, visit National Review’s Corner and watch the pundits attack Huckabee’s populism and McCain’s liberalism while ignoring Paul.  A rending of garments occurred among this crowd when Fred Thompson dropped out last week and McCain won SC.  It’s vicious.

Another third wants a more moderate stance and has gotten behind McCain.  His willingness to seek compromise with Democrats on immigration, taxes, campaign finance reform and positions on torture – from personal experience – are anathema to the neoconservatives mentioned above.  The fact that the dominant media has gotten behind McCain just stirs up more suspicion in the talk radio realm.  Lately, I’ve heard Hannity go off on McCain with angst usually reserved for the Clintons.

The last third of the Republican electorate is the remnant.  It is split between the evangelicals who appear to be drawn toward Huckabee and the small-government libertarians that flock to Dr Ron Paul.  The national party ignores either of these groups at their peril; Christians disgusted at liberal abortion or marriage policies or libertarians fed up with “print and spend” budgets and federal intrusions who stay home in November would throw the general election to the blue-staters.

Maybe all of this is an oversimplification and I’m way off base…I’m an engineer not a pundit.  But I do know the political right has reason to be worried and doesn’t even realize it.  This makes for a looming executive branch drought that may take 8 to 12 years to resolve.

Guess who?

Found this unbelieveable comment during the lunchtime surf:

"The press don't like him, and too much time is spent on superficial observations, but he has clearly given a great deal of thought to very big issues." Mark Levin on Fred Thompson.

Were we watching the same debate?

NH Debate Debrief

I had a chance to sleep on the NH Debate last night and reflect a bit.  My impressions are unchanged.  Please note that I prefer Dr Ron Paul to any of the candidates who participated last night.  That said, I’ll look at the discussion last night on three levels:

First, in the context of a Republican debate, the three executives, Rudy, Huckabee and Romney did much better than their colleagues from the legislative branch.  Senators Thompson and McCain: presenting yourselves as “agents for change” after your respective careers inside the Washington machine falls a little flat.  Rudy and Romney did pretty well to establish themselves as qualified leaders.  Huckabee needs to realize that his evangelical-based populism runs the risk of alienating more secular, small-government conservatives.  George Will has an excellent column on this here.

Second, with respect to the national contest against a Democratic nominee, the debate was a win for the Democrats.  My reasoning is thus:  In a national race, each party “owns” 35-40% of the electorate outright and 20-30% of voters are uncommitted.  These middle-of-the-road Americans are the ones who determine the outcome of the election.  In every election, the candidates spend primary season “shoring up their base” followed by a moderated post-convention period tacking to the center - Bill Clinton did this very well.  Now, most people in this political center can’t articulate exactly what they want from the next President, but they know they want something different than President Bush has offered.  That said all five offer an extension of Bush’s more extreme policies, that for better or worse, a large percentage of the country wants to leave behind.  The vitriol of a campaign against Hillary from any of these five would turn off the center.  Against Obama the charismatic change agent, any of them would loose the center heartily.

Finally, in the context of our national problems, Romney came closest of the five to convincing me that he can solve them.  I have no doubt that his business abilities can plot an initial course and his statements about eliminating wasteful programs are promising.  But, in light of the point above, I think his “double Guantanamo” statement and ambiguity on torture will come back to haunt him in the general election.

None of the five seem to understand that the root causes of our national problems are that the federal government either oversteps its constitutional bounds or abdicates its constitutional responsibilities.  For all of the “Reagan” props last night, none of them came close to Reagan’s zeal for reducing the size, scope or influence of government.

I look forward to seeing how well – or how poorly – Dr Paul does in NH tomorrow night.

Debate Debrief

Watched the Republican debate last night and was quite disappointed.  Of the “Top Tier,” only McCain came off as decent.  His steady pressure on Romney regarding torture was great – ending with the comment about withdrawing from the Geneva Conventions.  His cheap shots about Hitler/Vietnam/Isolationism directed at Dr. Paul may have garnered applause but were historically inaccurate and short-sighted.

Some debate metrics on questions asked, time allotted – both absolute and as a percentage can be found here.

I think it was lame that Ron Paul’s direct questions amounted to:

• Are you really a conspiracy nut?
• What are you going to do when you drop out?
• How would you punish women for getting an abortion?

Andrew Sullivan summed it up thus:

"In general, it felt like a debate from a party that expects to be in the wilderness for a while. And they sure deserve to be."

High point: My wife actually watched it with me and was engaged throughout.  We paused the action (if you can use that word) occasionally and talked about politics for the first time.  Kinda cool.